The job market is in trouble… but the Fed will save 2026

The US economy is showing clear signs of deceleration, with the labor market emerging as the main point of weakness. At the same time, the government shutdown has created a significant data vacuum, leaving the Federal Reserve with limited visibility on both inflation and employment. Jerome Powell himself acknowledged that policymakers are effectively “flying blind”.

Behind this statistical uncertainty, one message is becoming increasingly clear: the US job market is deteriorating more rapidly than official data suggest. This weakness increases the risk of a market correction in Q1, which could ultimately force the Fed to ease monetary policy more aggressively than currently priced by markets.

In this article, we explain why short-term risks remain elevated, but also why a more accommodative Fed, renewed liquidity support and rate cuts could help stabilize markets in 2026. Rather than signaling the start of a long-term bear market, this environment is likely to favor sector, style and regional rotations, creating selective investment opportunities.

Oil prices are approaching a structural bottom

After two years of steady declines driven by oversupply, OPEC’s policy shift, extreme pessimism in speculative positioning, and a flattening futures curve all point to an upcoming stabilization — and potentially the first leg of a rebound toward USD 70/bbl.

In this week’s analysis, we explore why the downside now appears limited, what could trigger a trend reversal, and how each segment of the Energy sector may react if the recovery unfolds.

A turning point may be near for one of the most cyclical markets in the global economy.

The Health Care Sector is Closing its Underperformance Gap

After months of lagging global equities, the Health Care sector is finally closing its underperformance gap. What initially looked like a structural decline—driven by regulatory pressure, political uncertainty, and sharp drawdowns in major pharma names—has instead created one of the most attractive valuation setups since the financial crisis.

Since late September, the sector has staged a decisive reversal, outperforming global markets as investors rotate back into resilient, defensive, and increasingly innovative segments. At the same time, the GLP-1 obesity treatment revolution is expanding across the entire value chain, becoming a powerful secular catalyst for the years ahead.

This week, we explore why the worst now appears behind us, what still makes valuations compelling, and where the next drivers of growth are emerging within one of the most strategically important sectors of the global economy.

Japan’s Big Warning Signal

Japan is entering a critical phase. Bond yields are hitting multi-decade highs, debt monetization is accelerating, and the yen is sinking—even as the Nikkei rallies.

Beneath the surface, Japan’s fiscal architecture is straining in ways that may foreshadow what’s coming for the U.S. as well. In this week’s report, we break down why Japan’s monetary trap matters, what it means for global markets, and why gold continues to shine as the ultimate hedge.

The Hidden Outperformers of the Next 90 Days

After a 7-month rally, markets are losing momentum and a short-term correction is underway. While investors rotate away from high-growth tech, one sector stands out as a potential winner in the turbulence: Consumer Staples.

Historically resilient during downturns, attractively valued, and supported by defensive cash flows, staples may offer one of the most compelling repositioning opportunities of the quarter.

Discover why this shift matters now, how valuations have reset, and where opportunities may lie across global leaders such as Nestlé, PepsiCo, Walmart or Procter & Gamble

After the AI boom, markets catch their breath.

After seven months of relentless rally driven by AI optimism and record tech valuations, global markets are finally showing signs of fatigue.

The Magnificent Seven have lost momentum, Meta’s heavy capex plans raised new concerns, and the ongoing U.S. government shutdown is adding pressure on growth and sentiment.

Our latest Elaia Weekly explains why this market pause could mark the start of a short-term correction rather than a trend reversal — and why patience, flexibility, and selectivity now matter more than ever.

While global markets reach new highs, Switzerland quietly stands out — resilient, undervalued, and stable.

Despite trade tensions and slowing growth, the Swiss economy combines low inflation, fiscal discipline, and world-class companies. With equity valuations at a decade-low discount to global peers, opportunities are emerging for long-term investors seeking both defensive strength and upside potential.

Our latest Elaia Weekly explores why Switzerland remains Europe’s true safe haven — at a big discount.

After one of the strongest equity rallies in recent years, attention has shifted toward fixed income markets.

The Federal Reserve’s change in tone marks a turning point: the rate-cut cycle is underway, long-term yields are falling, and quality bonds are regaining their role as a cornerstone of balanced portfolios.

Our latest Elaia Weekly explores why duration is back — and why investors should act before yields compress further.

After six months of strong market performance, signs of fragility are emerging. Renewed geopolitical tensions, slowing job creation, and stretched valuations point toward a potential short-term correction.

Elaia’s latest Weekly explores how investors can navigate this environment — from taking profits and strengthening defensiveness, to focusing on dominant companies operating in oligopolistic or monopolistic markets that offer resilience and long-term value.

The convergence of AI, electrification, and the zero-carbon transition is reshaping global demand for industrial metals.
This week, Elaia explores why metals & mining may enter a new structural supercycle — driven by technology, policy, and scarcity.

Each week, Elaia Capital SA shares its insights on global markets through a concise and data-driven research note. In this edition, we explore the renewed momentum in Chinese equities, supported by structural strengths, policy initiatives, and a gradual financial opening confirming our constructive stance.

Investir, c’est bien plus que chercher un bon rendement. C’est savoir où placer son argent au bon moment, dans les bons domaines, en restant fidèle à ses valeurs et à ses objectifs.

Il y a des périodes dans la vie où tout s’accélère, où les décisions s’enchaînent sans laisser le temps de les mûrir. Et puis, il y a ces moments charnières qui imposent un temps d’arrêt.