Énergies Alternatives : le Temps du Repositionnement

Après l’excès et la correction, place à un nouveau cycle d’investissement structurel.

Depuis plusieurs années, la transition énergétique s’impose comme l’un des grands thèmes structurels de l’économie mondiale. Pourtant, après l’euphorie post-Covid et l’engouement massif pour les valeurs « vertes », le secteur des énergies alternatives a traversé une phase de correction sévère, marquée par la remontée brutale des taux d’intérêt, l’inflation des coûts et des attentes devenues irréalistes.

Aujourd’hui, le contexte change profondément.

La détente monétaire amorcée par les banques centrales, l’explosion de la demande d’électricité liée à l’électrification des usages et au développement de l’intelligence artificielle, ainsi que des flux d’investissement désormais guidés par des impératifs industriels plutôt qu’idéologiques, redessinent les perspectives du secteur. Ce qui relevait hier d’un thème ESG devient progressivement une infrastructure essentielle de croissance.

Dans ce nouveau cycle, la question n’est plus de savoir si la transition énergétique aura lieu, mais comment elle sera financée, construite… et par qui.

Uranium & Nuclear: The Silent Backbone of the Electrification Boom

As the world races toward electrification—AI, data centers, grids, and re-industrialization—one energy source stands apart: nuclear. Reliable, carbon-free, and immune to economic cycles, nuclear power is quietly reclaiming a central role in the global energy mix.

Behind it lies a highly constrained uranium market, where supply is structurally tight, demand is inelastic, and long-term contracts dominate. With reactor restarts, massive new builds in China, and a strategic reshoring of nuclear fuel chains in the US and Europe, the imbalance is becoming increasingly visible.

Uranium is no longer a niche trade. It sits at the crossroads of energy security, electrification, and geopolitics—and could be one of the most asymmetric opportunities of the decade.

Read our full weekly to understand why uranium and nuclear equities are moving from the margins to the core of the investment landscape.

Germany Is Back: Europe’s Next Equity Powerhouse

After years of stagnation, Germany is quietly staging a comeback — and the market is starting to notice.
A historic fiscal pivot is underway, with €500bn in infrastructure spending and uncapped defense budgets reshaping the country’s growth outlook for the next decade.

This is not a cyclical rebound. It’s a structural regime change: domestic demand replaces export dependency, industrial earnings regain visibility, and valuations remain attractive relative to European peers.

In this week’s analysis, we break down why Germany could outperform European equities over the next 18–24 months, which sectors stand to benefit the most, and why the DAX may be entering a new long-term leadership phase.

Why Emerging Markets Are Entering a New Structural Bull Phase

After more than a decade of relative underperformance, Emerging Markets are entering a fundamentally different regime. The convergence of a global commodity supercycle, structural US dollar weakness, and political normalization in key regions such as Latin America is reshaping the investment landscape.

This is not a short-term tactical rebound. Industrial metals, energy and strategic commodities are being re-priced as demand from AI infrastructure, electrification and the energy transition accelerates, while supply remains constrained. At the same time, a weakening dollar is easing financial conditions across Emerging Markets, improving debt dynamics and creating room for monetary easing just as growth momentum recovers.

In this article, we explain why Emerging Markets are breaking out of a long-term underperformance cycle, why Latin America stands out as a prime beneficiary, and how both equities and local currency bonds offer compelling risk-reward opportunities in 2026. For investors willing to look beyond Developed Markets, the opportunity set has rarely been this attractive.

FX Markets Are About to Wake Up: Volatility Is Coming

After years of relative calm, currency markets are on the verge of a regime shift. The stability observed in 2025 is unlikely to persist as structural imbalances, political pressure on central banks and diverging monetary paths begin to resurface. A weaker US dollar, narrowing rate differentials and rising fiscal stress are setting the stage for a meaningful return of FX volatility.

In this environment, currencies will no longer move in unison. Winners and losers are emerging, with major implications for portfolio construction. At the same time, de-dollarization trends and unprecedented central bank gold accumulation are reinforcing gold’s role as a strategic anchor in an increasingly fragmented monetary system.

In this article, we outline where volatility is most likely to materialize, which currencies stand to benefit from the next phase of the cycle, and why gold remains one of the clearest structural beneficiaries of the shifting global monetary order.

From Precious to Industrial Metals: The Next Phase of the Commodity Cycle

After an exceptional run in precious metals, the commodity bull market is entering a new phase. Structural forces—electrification, energy transition and AI infrastructure—are driving exponential demand for industrial metals, while supply remains constrained. At the same time, oil prices appear to be bottoming, setting the stage for a potential recovery and renewed strength in Energy equities.

In this article, we explain why the current environment marks a strategic inflection point for commodities, how dollar weakness and Fed policy could reinforce the trend, and why industrial metals and energy producers are increasingly attractive as long-term investment themes.

The job market is in trouble… but the Fed will save 2026

The US economy is showing clear signs of deceleration, with the labor market emerging as the main point of weakness. At the same time, the government shutdown has created a significant data vacuum, leaving the Federal Reserve with limited visibility on both inflation and employment. Jerome Powell himself acknowledged that policymakers are effectively “flying blind”.

Behind this statistical uncertainty, one message is becoming increasingly clear: the US job market is deteriorating more rapidly than official data suggest. This weakness increases the risk of a market correction in Q1, which could ultimately force the Fed to ease monetary policy more aggressively than currently priced by markets.

In this article, we explain why short-term risks remain elevated, but also why a more accommodative Fed, renewed liquidity support and rate cuts could help stabilize markets in 2026. Rather than signaling the start of a long-term bear market, this environment is likely to favor sector, style and regional rotations, creating selective investment opportunities.

Oil prices are approaching a structural bottom

After two years of steady declines driven by oversupply, OPEC’s policy shift, extreme pessimism in speculative positioning, and a flattening futures curve all point to an upcoming stabilization — and potentially the first leg of a rebound toward USD 70/bbl.

In this week’s analysis, we explore why the downside now appears limited, what could trigger a trend reversal, and how each segment of the Energy sector may react if the recovery unfolds.

A turning point may be near for one of the most cyclical markets in the global economy.

The Health Care Sector is Closing its Underperformance Gap

After months of lagging global equities, the Health Care sector is finally closing its underperformance gap. What initially looked like a structural decline—driven by regulatory pressure, political uncertainty, and sharp drawdowns in major pharma names—has instead created one of the most attractive valuation setups since the financial crisis.

Since late September, the sector has staged a decisive reversal, outperforming global markets as investors rotate back into resilient, defensive, and increasingly innovative segments. At the same time, the GLP-1 obesity treatment revolution is expanding across the entire value chain, becoming a powerful secular catalyst for the years ahead.

This week, we explore why the worst now appears behind us, what still makes valuations compelling, and where the next drivers of growth are emerging within one of the most strategically important sectors of the global economy.

Japan’s Big Warning Signal

Japan is entering a critical phase. Bond yields are hitting multi-decade highs, debt monetization is accelerating, and the yen is sinking—even as the Nikkei rallies.

Beneath the surface, Japan’s fiscal architecture is straining in ways that may foreshadow what’s coming for the U.S. as well. In this week’s report, we break down why Japan’s monetary trap matters, what it means for global markets, and why gold continues to shine as the ultimate hedge.

The Hidden Outperformers of the Next 90 Days

After a 7-month rally, markets are losing momentum and a short-term correction is underway. While investors rotate away from high-growth tech, one sector stands out as a potential winner in the turbulence: Consumer Staples.

Historically resilient during downturns, attractively valued, and supported by defensive cash flows, staples may offer one of the most compelling repositioning opportunities of the quarter.

Discover why this shift matters now, how valuations have reset, and where opportunities may lie across global leaders such as Nestlé, PepsiCo, Walmart or Procter & Gamble

After the AI boom, markets catch their breath.

After seven months of relentless rally driven by AI optimism and record tech valuations, global markets are finally showing signs of fatigue.

The Magnificent Seven have lost momentum, Meta’s heavy capex plans raised new concerns, and the ongoing U.S. government shutdown is adding pressure on growth and sentiment.

Our latest Elaia Weekly explains why this market pause could mark the start of a short-term correction rather than a trend reversal — and why patience, flexibility, and selectivity now matter more than ever.

While global markets reach new highs, Switzerland quietly stands out — resilient, undervalued, and stable.

Despite trade tensions and slowing growth, the Swiss economy combines low inflation, fiscal discipline, and world-class companies. With equity valuations at a decade-low discount to global peers, opportunities are emerging for long-term investors seeking both defensive strength and upside potential.

Our latest Elaia Weekly explores why Switzerland remains Europe’s true safe haven — at a big discount.

After one of the strongest equity rallies in recent years, attention has shifted toward fixed income markets.

The Federal Reserve’s change in tone marks a turning point: the rate-cut cycle is underway, long-term yields are falling, and quality bonds are regaining their role as a cornerstone of balanced portfolios.

Our latest Elaia Weekly explores why duration is back — and why investors should act before yields compress further.

After six months of strong market performance, signs of fragility are emerging. Renewed geopolitical tensions, slowing job creation, and stretched valuations point toward a potential short-term correction.

Elaia’s latest Weekly explores how investors can navigate this environment — from taking profits and strengthening defensiveness, to focusing on dominant companies operating in oligopolistic or monopolistic markets that offer resilience and long-term value.

The convergence of AI, electrification, and the zero-carbon transition is reshaping global demand for industrial metals.
This week, Elaia explores why metals & mining may enter a new structural supercycle — driven by technology, policy, and scarcity.

Each week, Elaia Capital SA shares its insights on global markets through a concise and data-driven research note. In this edition, we explore the renewed momentum in Chinese equities, supported by structural strengths, policy initiatives, and a gradual financial opening confirming our constructive stance.

Investir, c’est bien plus que chercher un bon rendement. C’est savoir où placer son argent au bon moment, dans les bons domaines, en restant fidèle à ses valeurs et à ses objectifs.

Il y a des périodes dans la vie où tout s’accélère, où les décisions s’enchaînent sans laisser le temps de les mûrir. Et puis, il y a ces moments charnières qui imposent un temps d’arrêt.