Elaia Weekly View
🌿 Elaia Weekly View – Week 4 / 2026
FX Markets Are About to Wake Up: Volatility Is Coming
After years of relative calm, currency markets are on the verge of a regime shift. The stability observed in 2025 is unlikely to persist as structural imbalances, political pressure on central banks and diverging monetary paths begin to resurface. A weaker US dollar, narrowing rate differentials and rising fiscal stress are setting the stage for a meaningful return of FX volatility.
In this environment, currencies will no longer move in unison. Winners and losers are emerging, with major implications for portfolio construction. At the same time, de-dollarization trends and unprecedented central bank gold accumulation are reinforcing gold’s role as a strategic anchor in an increasingly fragmented monetary system.
In this article, we outline where volatility is most likely to materialize, which currencies stand to benefit from the next phase of the cycle, and why gold remains one of the clearest structural beneficiaries of the shifting global monetary order.